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from Gay Activism in the Schools
Decrease Of Suicide Risk
With Delay Of Self Labeling
By N.E.Whitehead, Ph.D.
September, 2005
Summary: Remafedi et al., state in a study of attempted suicide among gay
and bisexual youth that the risk diminished by 80% per year. I show that this is
a misprint and should read "diminished to 80% each year."
The paper under consideration is Remafedi, G, Farrow, JA, Deisher, RW, (1991) "Risk factors for attempted suicide in gay and bisexual
youth." Pediatrics 87: 869-875. The 137 male subjects mostly lived in
Minnesota or Washington state.
In it, the authors state (p. 74):
For each year's delay in bisexual or homosexual self-labeling, the odds of a
suicide attempt diminished by 80%.
This is a dramatic statistic, but immediately suspicious. The ages involved were
14 to 21. If the risk is taken as 100% at age 14, it would be 20% at age 15, 4%
at age 16, 0.8% at age 17 and about 0.15% at age 18. After that, anyone who
self labeled as gay or bisexual would essentially never commit suicide. We know
from common experience that this is not true. We also find it hard to see why
one year would make such a dramatic difference. It seems unlikely.
The 80% figure can only be derived from Table 4 which contains the following
line:
Table 4. Summary table: Regression Analysis of Suicide Attempts
| Variable | Odds ratio | 95% C.I. | Reg. Coeff. | Std. Error | P value |
| Label age | 0.82 | 0.69-0.96 | -0.21 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
"Reg. Coeff." Means the regression coefficient, and means that for each year of
age, the probability of an attempt at suicide decreases by 21%. The "Odds ratio"
means that for each year, the probability of an attempt at suicide diminishes
from 1.00 to 0.82, i.e., it diminishes 18%. The two figures 21% and 18% are not
in conflict because of the size of the standard error, making them the same with
statistical error. A good round figure would be to say the probability
diminishes by 20% per year or diminishes to 80%. It looks like the authors wrote
"by" when to be consistent with the more precise numbers in their table, they
should have written "to."
This means that the earlier self labeling occurs, the higher the risk of suicide
attempts. The authors state in the paper that:
...suicide attempts were not explained by experiences with discrimination,
violence, loss of friendship, or current personal attitudes towards
homosexuality.
This is contrary to frequently and reasonably expressed hypotheses that
discrimination against homosexual people causes suicide attempts. However, all
numerical tests ever done, such as the one in this paper, do not support the
link. There are usually other reasons for suicide attempts, and the authors
state that family problems were the most frequently cited reason.
The authors stated:
...gender nonconformity and precocious psychosexual development were predictive
of self harm. Compared with peers, suicide attempters recognized homosexual
attractions and told other persons at younger ages. First sexual experiences
with males and females also occurred at younger ages than peers'.
Early sexual experience was predictive of suicide attempts.
Now, correlation is not causation. Although there are links, we have to be
cautious stating that delaying self-labeling will prevent suicide, or that
postponing sexual experience will prevent suicide. It may not. However, from the
point of view of policy (which must always err on the conservative side when
matters of life-and-death like suicide attempts are involved), it would be
highly prudent to:
(a) Discourage early sexual experience
(b) Discourage early self-labeling
(c) Discourage activists who promote early self-labeling
Those in charge of young people are usually legally responsible for the best
possible care, and would probably be legally liable if they failed to take into
account the above data and a death resulted, particularly if it were brought to
their attention beforehand.
Neil Whitehead has a Ph.D. in chemistry and has been employed by the New
Zealand government as a scientist for 24 years and worked for the United Nations
for four years. Whitehead is author of My Genes Made Me Do It, a survey of more
than 1700 scientific papers on homosexuality. He currently works as a scientific
research consultant and hosts http://www.mygenes.co.nz web site.
Updated: 8 February 2008
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